Here it is, the middle of the second heat wave of the year, and it isn't even summer yet. I need something that will cool me off. Looks like the latest Federal Reserve Beige Book is just the thing.
For those of you who are not familiar with it, or who missed my summary of an earlier Beige Book, the Beige Book is the Federal Reserve System's anecdotal survey of economic conditions in the 12 Federal Reserve Bank districts. It makes for interesting reading because, in the numbers-obsessed world of finance and economics, there's nary a number in it. Instead, it is based on conversations with contacts in the various sectors, who report on what they are seeing in their corner of the regional economy.
As the Third Federal Reserve District covers southern New Jersey, eastern Pennsylvania and Delaware, its report is a good stand-in for a report on economic conditions in the greater Philadelphia region. And the current situation is that things are cooling off after a growth spurt at the beginning of the year.
Business continues to pick up in the region, but more slowly than in March, creating a sort of good news/bad news scenario for most people seeking employment in Greater Philadelphia. Retail employment, which tends to slow down in the city as summer approaches, will likely limp along, as most retailers reported weak year-over-year sales gains to the Philly Fed. Manufacturing, which grew strongly in the early spring, cooled to about half that growth pace this time around. In addition to rising prices for commodities, many manufacturers laid a good chunk of the blame for the slowdown at the feet of Congress, which failed to pass a new surface transportation spending bill - which would also have been good news for the construction industry had it passed. And, of course, the real estate market remains troubled, especially on the residential side, which also means little new employment in construction.
One somewhat bright spot is the service sector, where many firms reported both increased demand from existing clients and added demand from new ones.
One retailer quoted in the Beige Book pointed out a modest negative feedback loop currently at work. In explaining the weak sales figures, the retailer said, "The consumer is responding to value. Only confidence in the job situation will prompt broader buying." And as long as economic growth continues to limp along, there will be little confidence in the job situation.
By Sandy Smith
Sandy Smith is a veteran freelance writer, editor and public relations professional who lives in Philadelphia. Besides blogging for PhillyJobs.com, he has written for numerous publications and websites, would be happy to do your resume, and is himself actively seeking career opportunities on Beyond.com. Check out his LinkedIn profile and read his other posts on PhillyJobsBlog.com.
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