The conventional wisdom on the Convention Center may be wrong

The dust has settled, the barricades have been removed, and three years after ground was first broken, Philadelphia now has a truly big league convention center, with more than 2 million square feet of sellable space, the largest ballroom on the East Coast, and more than 500,000 square feet of undivided exhibit space. The exhibition hall is now big enough to host a major national convention with 20,000 or more attendees, or it can hold two mid-sized conventions - or a convention and a "gate show" like the Flower Show or Auto Show - simultaneously.

To the city's convention, tourism and hospitality industries, the expanded Pennsylvania Convention Center is the answer to their prayers. To accommodate bigger conventions, the city will need more hotel rooms. That means lots of new construction jobs, then additional jobs in the hotels once they open. More conventioneers means more spending in local shops and restaurants, more revenue in city coffers, and more employment in the retail and restaurant industries.

But if recent trends in meetings and conventions continue, the likely outcome in the near term is a bigger operating deficit for the center instead - and less hotel tax revenue to cover it.

Convention attendance has been on the decline for at least the last three years in most of the nation's big convention cities, including Atlanta and Las Vegas, and here as well. That means fewer, not more, room-nights in local hotels - hardly an incentive to build additional rooms. In addition, the expanded center is competing in a market full of mega-exhibit halls - the addition makes Philadelphia's the 14th-largest exhibition hall in the country, up from 23d, and Washington and New York both have bigger halls.

Put bluntly, the convention promoters who are counting on the bigger center to attract more conventions to Philadelphia are whistling into the wind. Instead of answering their prayers, the new and improved Pennsylvania Convention Center may just be cause for them to pray harder. And for the taxpayers of the state, it will be one more burden to bear, as the state is now picking up the center's operating deficit.

By Sandy Smith

Sandy Smith is a veteran freelance writer, editor and public relations professional who lives in Philadelphia. Besides blogging for PhillyJobs.com, he has written for numerous publications and websites, would be happy to do your resume, and is himself actively seeking career opportunities on Beyond.com. Check out his LinkedIn profile.