An article published in the Philadelphia Inquirer over the weekend indicated that Pennsylvania had added 34000 jobs in April. At first glance one would think – wow – that’s great! But I am a skeptic so I did a bit of research. For non-farm jobs in Pennsylvania the job growth exceeded the US average; job decreases were less over the year than the US average and the growth sectors included Admin & Waste (temps due to the Temple University Hospital strike); retail; arts, entertainment & recreation (amusement parks); federal government (census) and manufacturing.
Everything looks relatively positive until you realize that the unemployment did not change.
So far this year, the rate comparisons for this year are:
April 2010 - the national unemployment rate was 9.9% while PA was 9.0: PA employment numbers were 5866104 and the gained/lost computed to 9914
March 2010 - the national unemployment rate was 9.9% while PA was 9.0: PA employment numbers were 5876190 and the gained/lost was 1830
February 2010 - the national unemployment rate was 9.7% with PA at 8.9%: PA employment was 5874360 with the gained/lost at 17721
January 2010 - the national unemployment rate was 9.7% with PA at 8.8%: PA employment was 5856639 with the gained/lost at 22901
Derived from http://www.deptofnumbers.com/unemployment/pennsylvania/
The actual number of jobs gained – subtracting out the jobs lost was 9914 for the entire state of Pennsylvania – not 34000. Since the numbers are adjusted seasonally one would expect growth in areas such as recreation for amusement parks, national parks and all of the other summer activity sites. If you notice the admin & waste services increase; this was due to the Temple University Hospital strike which is now over. On the Fed Gov sector, the numbers went up due to temporary workers being hired to complete the census reporting. The question remains – what happens at the end of May when the numbers are recalculated without the temporary employees for Temple? And then again at the end of June when the census takers go back on unemployment?
Additionally we cannot forget about the stimulus money the state received. What happens when that is gone? That money was just a temporary stop-gap measure and one has to wonder how many jobs were actually created from the stimulus funds. So I continued to research and discovered where the money is going:
$4 billion to Healthcare
$3.4 billion to Workforce
$2.7 billion to education
$1 billion to transportation infrastructure
$1 billion to community & family support
$478 million to housing
$400 million to public safety
$390 million to energy
$97 million to environment
Governor Rendell said that the state had created OR maintained more than 15,200 full-time jobs in the first quarter 2010. Of course he would say that – he is a politician! Ask the question to those not in politics and the picture is a bit different. A large percentage of economists working at companies around the country said that employment is neither higher nor lower as a result of the stimulus. In yet another poll, 62% surveyed said that the stimulus has not helped the job situation at all.
I do not know about you but I really dislike articles that mislead the public like that. Yes we, in Pennsylvania, are on an upward swing compared to the national averages but we still have a long way to go. Job seekers - the jobs are coming slowly so the only advice to you is to just keep on going.
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